A Better Way to Democratize Finance?
You've probably never heard of Aaron Shapiro.
Unlike the founders of other higher profile FinTech startups, Shapiro hasn't been on the front page of any major business publication. He hasn't testified before Congress. Yet Shapiro is an innovator committed to "democratizing" finance. And he and his company, Carver Edison, arguably are doing as much to make wealth accumulation possible for people "left behind" by the wealth gap over the past few decades than online trading platforms or digital currencies.
What business is he in? The decidedly unsexy business of employee stock purchase plans.
Known as ESPPs, employee stock purchase plans were created in 1964 as part of President Lyndon Johnson's "war on poverty," 14 years before 401(k) plans were born. The idea was to give people who work for public corporations (there are 35 million of them today) the opportunity to grow their wealth by investing a portion of their pay (up to $25,000 a year) in the stock of their employers at a discount (usually 15%) – with favorable tax treatment.
About three-quarters of the public companies in America offer ESPPs, but participation is low. According to current survey data, 62% of companies with an ESPP reported participation rates of 40% or less of eligible employees.
One reason for this is that employees who might benefit the most feel they can't afford to do so. Which is what happened to Shapiro's mother, who worked at UnitedHealthcare for a time and couldn't afford payroll deductions to participate in the company's ESPP. She missed out on the stock's skyrocketing ascent over the recent two decades. Motivated by his mother's misfortune, Shapiro set out to reimagine and retool ESPPs.
Shapiro pioneered a unique program called "Cashless Participation" that, in essence, lends money short-term to employees at no interest cost (though in some cases with a small fee) to enable them to buy more stock in their company's ESPP than they could otherwise afford.
Here's how it works:
An employee signs up for their ESPP. They select how much of their income they want or can afford to contribute. That contribution comes out of their paychecks every pay period.
So far, that's no different from traditional ESPPs.
The innovative part is this: On or before the date on which stock is purchased, Carver Edison sends the company an additional amount equal to the difference between what the employee has contributed and the maximum purchase permitted by the company. On average, employees can own 50% to 150% more than what they had deducted from their paychecks.
What makes this all possible is a private letter ruling Carver Edison applied for and received from the Internal Revenue Service that affirmed, " ... a participant's ability to obtain a loan from its employer or a third party to purchase shares under a plan does not prevent the plan from qualifying as an employee stock purchase plan."
Importantly, Carver Edison offers education materials to companies who sponsor ESPPs because, like any investment vehicle, ESPPs are subject to risks like concentration in a single stock and price declines. Purchasing stock at a discount both increases the potential for return and cushions the risk of downside volatility. But leveraging stock purchases through cashless loans dials up the risk and return in opposite directions.
Concerns about America's growing wealth gap and about income inequality have increased interest in financial services tools and strategies that expand market access to non-traditional participants – those who haven't been able to participate in the rising value of financial assets since the Great Financial Crisis.
The most famous of these, of course, is Robinhood's commission-free online brokerage platform. But Walmart just hired two senior Goldman Sachs executives to help deliver financial services through their more than 4,700 stores. And a little-noticed proposal in former U.S. presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg's policy platform was using the U.S. Postal Service to deliver basic financial services.
As is always the case, there can be a downside to financial innovation. A classic example was the recent short-term trading in GameStop stock on online trading platforms, which had very little to do with constructively "democratizing finance" or building long-term wealth for investors.
Which begs the question: What might the ESPP equivalent of GameStop be? Possibly employees flipping out of their plans and selling their leveraged positions for quick gains.
"Cashless Participation" certainly demonstrates the potential inherent in reengineering old-school, low-tech programs like ESPPs to overcome barriers to broader and more financially meaningful employee stock ownership. The key, as always, is to make sure this and other innovations remain true to their original purpose and achieve their intended outcomes.
It's Time to Take Action on Climate Finance
Anyone who questions the essential and salutary role the financial system plays in society need only look at the way participants in financial markets are responding to the planet's single most pressing existential imperative – transitioning to a low-carbon economy.
There is an enormous amount of activity these days on the part of governments and NGOs, regulators, philanthropists, investors, and financial services providers around gearing up to support emerging climate-aligned finance initiatives.
In the first week of March alone:
- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced the formation of a Climate and ESG Task Force and said its 2021 examination priorities will "reflect the complicated, diverse and evolving nature of risks to investors and the markets, including climate and ESG."
- The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA), a trade group, announced its support for "mandatory disclosure of corporate-specific, financially material, decision-relevant data relating to climate risks and opportunities."
- The House Financial Services Committee Capital Markets Subcommittee held hearings on "Climate Change and Social Responsibility: Helping Corporate Boards and Investors Make Decisions for a Sustainable World."
- Federal Reserve Bank Governor Lael Brainard delivered a speech at the Institute for International Finance 2021 U.S. Climate Finance Summit on "The Role of Financial Institutions in Tackling the Challenge of Climate Change."
Despite this extraordinary energy around the topic, the scale of the climate finance challenge is massive. According to a December 2020 report by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and the Global Financial Markets Association (GFMA), the aggregate investment required to keep global temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees centigrade from pre-industrial levels (the ambition contained in the Paris Agreement) is $100-150 trillion, or $3-5 trillion annually. This compares to an estimated current investment of $600 billion annually. It also dwarfs the $4 trillion in aggregate spending President Biden is signaling he will propose later this year for "Build Back Better" investments in infrastructure and strategic industries, with only a portion targeted at climate-related business sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles.
This will require nothing short of an overhaul of financial markets structure to accommodate an unprecedented increase in financing that enables decarbonization and other forms of climate change mitigation.
The following chart (courtesy, again of BCG and GFMA) affords a picture of who and what will need to be involved to make this happen.
Source: Climate Finance Markets and the Real Economy: Sizing the Global Need and Defining the Market Structure to Mobilize Capital. Published by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and Global Financial Markets Association (GFMA) in December 2020. Used with permission.
This goes far beyond earlier efforts, like so-called "green bonds," which seem quaint by comparison. Mobilizing capital to prevent a species-threatening environmental crisis will involve a broad range of asset classes – including not just equity, bonds and bank loans, but also structured financings and sustainability-linked instruments.
Old-school instruments like municipal bonds should not be overlooked. Commentator Chris Hamel points out in a recent Bond Buyer article that municipal market in any given year is responsible for about 75% of the new money spend on infrastructure and calls for allowing private activity bonds to be used to finance things like a national system of charging stations for electric vehicles.
What will also be necessary are innovations in financial products that help reduce and allocate the risk inherent in replacing fossil fuel-based power with renewable power, particularly in areas of the world (namely Asia) where the need is greatest and political and currency risks elevated. This kind of risk mitigation will require new derivative tools and strategies (yes, the same derivatives Warren Buffett once called "financial weapons of mass destruction"). This effort will also require a lot of blended public/private/not-for-profit financial partnerships. Public and philanthropic capital – also known as "concessionary capital" – will be needed to entice much more significant amounts of capital from private investors out along the risk continuum.
Critically important will be identifying and deploying patient capital, so-called "green equity." "We need to reenergize financing for all of this," Microsoft founder Bill Gates, recently told the Harvard Business Review. "We need to tap... capital for the super-long-term nature of the products we need." In that same interview and others, Gates has said that if we are able to successfully mitigate the disastrous impact of climate change, it will be the most amazing thing humanity has ever done. Finance has an important role to play in that effort.
For more on climate finance, its evolution and related news, I suggest exploring SIFMA's suite of videos and articles on the topic.
A Bubble's a' Brewin' – But Not the One You Think
With market participants focused on whether we are in a stock market bubble, another bubble is developing and commanding relatively less attention: a bubble in the public indebtedness of the U.S. The situation is remarkably similar to the one that followed the Great Financial Crisis, only several times larger – a massive increase in budget deficits and a concurrent swelling of the balance sheet of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, all with support from policymakers as being "the right response" to a crisis (financial then, pandemic now), seemingly without any thought about how we're going to work our way out of this.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged in her recent confirmation hearing "an appreciation for the country's debt burden," but went on to express the consensus view that "right now, with interest rates at historic lows, the smartest thing we can do is act big."
Meaning spend big and borrow big.
A little more than 10 years after Simpson-Bowles Commission's report ("The Moment of Truth") and its chairs' premature declaration that "the era of debt denial ... is over," we will have spent:
- $2.0 trillion last March to replace income destroyed by the coronavirus, followed by another ...
- $900 billion in December, which turns out was a mere appetizer ahead of President Biden's proposal for another ...
- $1.9 trillion early this year.
Even if the Biden plan gets cut back (as my colleague Dan Clifton at Strategas predicts), that still could amount to almost $4 trillion in new federal spending in the most current 12-month period alone – all of which, 100%, was and will be deficit-funded.
It's no surprise, then, that the debt owed by the U.S. government to the public is estimated to increase to nearly $22 trillion by the end of fiscal year 2021 – up from $16.8 trillion in 2019 (not including entitlement liabilities from Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security). Such an uptick will equate to more than 100% of GDP for the first time since World War II.
And we're not done. In the second half of this year, we are likely to see proposals for $2 trillion in spending on infrastructure, $600 billion on affordable housing and $2 trillion of climate change initiatives, offset to some degree by yet-to-be determined by tax increases.
The questions posed by this spending binge are the same one I asked in my 2015 book A Force for Good:
"Is the US on a glide path to fiscal disaster? Or can we pull off what one commentator termed 'the miracle of immaculate monetary exit?' Are we about to enter into what economist Gary Shilling calls 'the age of deleveraging?' If so, will policy makers be able to effect what Bridgewater hedge funds manager Ray Dalio calls 'a beautiful deleveraging,' or will it be ugly? How long will our government engage in what economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have termed 'financial repression' – keeping interest rates artificially low (as they are now) to hold down the costs of financing debt, to the benefit of borrowers like the U.S. government over savers, the general population? Will our government eventually try to inflate their way out of America's debt burdens?"
Today, as was the cases following the financial crisis, there are several ways to resolve this problem, but the two of them mentioned above – financial repression and inflation – represent a Sophie's choice of unacceptably painful outcomes. The only truly viable path is to grow our way out of the sinkhole of public debt, as we did following World War II and, frankly, as we were on the path to doing before COVID-19 struck.
Today's growth challenge is made more difficult by the fact that growth for growth's sake is out of favor under the current Democratic-controlled government. Many policymakers today want "equitable" or "inclusive" growth and "sustainable" or "green" growth that doesn't degrade the environment.
All fine, up to a point. But they would be well-advised not to place too many constraints on growth. Our nation's debt burden will only begin to be manageable if the expansion of our economy is greater than the interest rate on our debt. Or, as Thomas Piketty expresses it in his book, Capital in the Twenty-First Century, g > r, where g is the economic growth rate and r the rate of return on wealth.
"If interest rates are 2 percent and the economy is growing at 3 percent ... then all a country has to do is sit back and wait," explains the Financial Times in a recent article. "As long as it does not borrow more, then debt will gradually dwindle to nothing compared with the size of the economy." On the other hand, "If interest rates rise above economic growth ... even small debts can get out of hand."
The Carnegie Endowment puts it in even simpler terms: "If I have a lot of debt, and if my income is rising relative to my cost of debt, it becomes easier for me to service the debt over time."
Growth for growth's sake may be out of favor, but the fact is, the only way out of this is to grow the economy. We need to collectively solve a multivariable equation with only one optimal answer: g > r. Anything else simply isn't an option. Or, at least, not a very attractive one.
Charting a Course for the Future of Finance
I've never been a fan of sitting on the sidelines. In my life and work, I very much want to be part of a team – working together to develop ideas, make decisions and see them through.
To effect change, though, you need to take action.
That's one reason why I was pleased to rejoin the board of directors of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (widely known as SIFMA) this fall. The premier trade association for the U.S. securities industry, SIFMA advocates on regulation, policy and legislation that impacts individual and institutional investors.
It's great to be back on the board and working alongside my industry peers, having previously served as a director for more than 10 years and as chairman in 2011. It is particularly gratifying to rejoin this year, as my colleague and fellow Baird Vice Chairman, Jim Allen, served as chairman of SIFMA's board of directors in 2019. He's now following his passion for community service by joining the board of the SIFMA Foundation, which champions financial education and literacy, particularly among kids.
Jim and I are proud to carry on Baird's long tradition of financial services industry leadership. That legacy begins with our firm's founder and namesake, Robert W. Baird, who believed so passionately in the need for our industry's self-regulation that he crisscrossed the country by train to convince his peers of its necessity and its advantages.
His efforts culminated in 1939 with the founding of the National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD), a self-regulating organization. Three Baird leaders would serve as the organization's chair, including Baird himself; Clarence Bickel, our third president, who also served two terms as governor of the New York Stock Exchange; and Robert Haack, a Baird stockbroker who went on to become president of the New York Stock Exchange for 10 years. After creating NASDAQ in 1971, the organization was eventually succeeded by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) in 2007.
Over our 100-plus-year history, numerous Baird leaders have served in leadership roles across the industry, carrying out our commitment to integrity, fairness and honesty in our business. To name just one, our former chairman and visionary leader, Paul Purcell, served multiple terms on the SIFMA board and also sat on the board of its predecessor organization, the Securities Industry Association.
I'm thankful to have the opportunity to carry on this tradition and to join my colleagues in leaving the proverbial sidelines and working to advocate for effective, efficient markets that benefit all investors.
How to Hedge a Swan's Tail
Nassim Nicolas Taleb, author of a book about the inevitability of unpredictable events, told Bloomberg Television last spring he gets irritated every time he hears the coronavirus pandemic referred to as a "Black Swan" – an event of enormous impact and consequence that couldn't have been predicted.
For Taleb, the pandemic is more like a "White Swan", long hiding in plain sight and wholly predictable – something he, Bill Gates and others had been pointing at for years.
Whatever color swan it is, the pandemic (and the ensuing global economic lockdown that macro research firm Strategas argues is the true Black Swan) is only one of several potential society-threatening extreme events identified in the book 7 Deadly Scenarios, written by Andrew Krepinevich. (Don't read it at bedtime.) Like a nuclear attack or a naval altercation with China in the South Pacific, the COVID-19 public health crisis is one of innumerable scenarios, seen and unseen, that could easily trigger a precipitous 35% drop in global market values like the one we experienced in March. And, as Taleb argues, in a complex, globally interconnected and increasingly fragile world the likelihood of such extreme events is increasing.
All this has renewed interest from institutional and individual investors alike in hedging against so called "tail risk."
Tail risk is usually defined as the chance of loss due to rare events. It is often quantified as a price movement three standard deviations outside the norm.
The case for protecting against tail risk in portfolio holdings is fairly straightforward and compelling. It's similar to the rationale for buying insurance on your house.
Where it gets interesting is around execution: how best to hedge against downside risk.
The traditional "keep it simple" time-tested advice from financial advisors has been to diversify across asset classes. For example, to allocate your portfolio 60% to stocks, 30% to bonds and 10% to cash. Which historically has worked pretty well. In his book, Wealth, War and Wisdom, the late investment strategist Barton Biggs looked at the performance of different asset classes during World War II, one of the most globally disruptive events in history, and concluded a 60%-40% stock bond allocation maintained value as well as any other allocation. (Though he also recommended buying farmland as extra protection.)
Many institutional investors adopt a similar approach but diversify less to bonds and cash and more to hedge funds or real assets, strategies that are harder to access for smaller investors.
Few would argue traditional diversification smooths out portfolio returns, moderating peaks and troughs in performance. The problem today is that (a) with bonds and cash yielding close to nothing, cash has a bigger impact on what a portfolio can earn than in a higher interest rate environment. (Assuming a 7% nominal long-term return on equities, allocating 40% to bonds and cash would reduce those returns to slightly more than 4%.) Also, (b) with bonds fully valued, their ability to provide non-correlated positive returns in a stock market sell off is diminished.
Enter the "tail risk" specialists. Among them Taleb, who advises the firm Universa's tail risk hedging program, which was famously terminated by the California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS) pension last fall and winter, only months before it would have earned the fund an estimated $1 billion in gains during the March drawdown.
Tail risk insurance comes in many flavors. But the idea is to allocate a small portion of a portfolio say to strategies that pay off when the world seems like it's coming to an end, allocating the rest of the portfolio to stocks. Depending on where the insurance kicks in (down 15%, down 20%, etc.), the price of volatility and an investor's willingness to sell off upside, the overall cost of the insurance can be managed to less than .50% annually. At least by institutional investors and/or family offices with the expertise to construct custom hedges.
For individual investors there are a few hedging strategies offered by specialists like Parametric, including various forms of put buying or collaring. A zero cost collar, for example, has no upfront costs but may limit your upside in strong equity markets. Without a budget, buying puts can be costly. Depending on current levels of volatility, investors may have to spend 3%-5% or more annually to receive the downside protection they desire. These strategies aren’t for everyone, as they typically have higher minimums of $1mm or more.
So, what's an individual investor to do?
One of my favorite ideas is to arrange for as much in lines of credit as your bank, wealth management firm or other reputable financial institution will lend you.
Financial markets are nothing if not resilient. They have recovered following every major crisis in our lifetimes. But as Warren Buffet, the most famous advocate of a fortress approach to liquidity management, puts it, "to finish first, you must first finish". You must have enough in reserves to stay invested during a crisis, enough to survive without having to sell your assets on the way down, at the bottom, or on the way up, before they have fully recovered their value.
Liquidity is the key to making it to the other side of a market crisis. Credit facilities are an underappreciated way to create liquidity. And unlike cash, many lines of credit don't cost anything... until you draw them down.
Which is (sort of) like not having to pay for insurance before you file a claim.
Past performance is not indicative of future results and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. All investments carry some level of risk, including loss of principal.
Small Business Capital Lifelines are Fraying
During a time of unprecedented societal disruption, providers for capital of small- and minority-owned businesses are at risk
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted more than any event in our lifetimes the importance to the "real" U.S. economy of small businesses, which generate more than half of GDP.
It's highlighted the hanging-by-a-thread fragility of enterprises owned by minorities or located in disadvantaged communities.
And it's also created existential challenges for the mission-oriented financial partners who serve that community.
Even in the best of times, businesses like Karibu Grocery and Deli, located in St. Paul, Minnesota, struggle to get access to capital and to the basic financial services they need to survive and grow.
Opened by the Ali family in summer 2018, Karibu sells groceries and serves Somali food in east St. Paul. The family faced a number of challenges before they were even able to open Karibu's doors. While siblings Abdiwali, Ikram and Mohamed had a promising location, a business plan and some start-up capital lined up, they struggled to secure additional financing for Karibu because of their limited credit histories.
Karibu's story is anything but unique. During the Coronavirus pandemic and social unrest roiling low-income communities, traditional lenders have pulled back from making smaller, more service-intensive loans in what they perceive as high-risk communities.
According to Forbes.com, only 12% of Black and Latino business owners who applied through mainstream banks or credit unions for forgivable loans under the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) received what they applied for.
Deprived of access to credit, and with an average of less than 30 days of cash on their balance sheets, nearly half of the 500 minority businesses responding to a survey by Global Strategy Group predicted they will be forced to shutter their doors permanently.
If there are financial lifelines of any kind for minority entrepreneurs amidst this confluence of crises, they may be community development financial institutions (known as CDFIs") – not-for-profit capital providers making investments aimed at expanding economic opportunity in low-income communities.
It was through a CDFI that the Ali siblings and Karibu Grocery & Deli found their capital lifeline. In addition to support provided by the City of St. Paul, the African Development Center and other funding sources, the 30-year old, Minneapolis-based Community Reinvestment Fund USA (CRF) granted the Ali's a loan that enabled them to open Karibu.
Recently, CRF was able to network with more than 40 other CDFIs to help originate over $500 million in PPP loans predominantly for Latino-, Black-, women- and Native American-owned businesses.
Nationally, about 300 CDFIs have approved more than $7 billion in PPP loans. That's out of a total of the more than $520 billion approved for PPP loans.
CRF is one of more than 1,100 community development financial institutions certified by the CDFI Fund, a division of the U.S. Department of the Treasury created in 1994. The CDFI Fund makes approximately $200-300 million in capital infusions to CDFIs each year, which organizations like CRF combine with foundation grants and leverage with various types of loans from commercial banks, who then get regulatory credit for their investments under the Community Reinvestment Act.
Collectively, they have $211 billion in total assets and made more than 750,000 loans to small businesses in 2019 totaling $21.5 billion.
Unfortunately, that's a drop in the ocean relative to overall need.
Many CDFIs are being tested by the same factors threatening the survival of the minority-owned businesses they serve, namely COVID-19, the shutdown of whole sectors of the economy and elevated social unrest.
Because a significant percentage of the businesses they lend to tend to be in the service, hospitality and restaurant sectors – parts of the economy that have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic – the credit quality of CDFI's loan portfolios is even more stressed than that of regulated financial institutions.
"This is definitely a situation where we have to 'put our own masks on first' before we can help others," says CRF's founder and CEO Frank Altman.
The lifeline for CDFIs could be a provision in the HEROES Act – a coronavirus relief bill passed by the U.S. House of Representatives in May. The bill would appropriate $1 billion to make capital injections into CDFIs – four to five times the annual amount the CDFI Fund normally makes available each year. As of late August, the fate of that appropriation was stalled negotiations with the U.S. Senate.
Long term, however, other non-governmental solutions are needed if CDFIs are to continue to serve as the provider of capital for minority businesses.
The growing popularity of impact investing may hold some promise. Over 25 years, Calvert Impact Capital has raised over $2 billion by offering Community Investment Notes to investors in denominations of as little as $20, making the proceeds available to CDFIs and other mission-driven intermediaries. Online technology company CNote's flagship also offers the opportunity to invest directly in CDFIs.
The Ali family and Karibu Grocery & Deli are only one proof point of how critical the access to capital CDFIs provide is to small- and minority-owned businesses and, by extension, to the U.S. economy.
Building a Structure for Digital Success
The pandemic environment has created no shortage of challenges for individuals and businesses in the United States. But not all of those challenges have resulted in negative outcomes. Take the wealth management industry, for example. While quarantine conditions and social distancing guidelines meant changing the way many financial advisors were accustomed to serving their clients, some – like Baird – were able to roll with that change, using technology to adapt without sacrificing the important personal nature of those relationships.
I recently co-authored an article for Investment News with Ryan Burwell, Director of Technology Strategy for Baird’s Private Wealth Management business, reflecting on the digital transformation of our industry and what financial advisors will expect from firms in the future.
You can read that article below.
Innovating the U.S. National Debt: "Trills" to the Rescue?
This year alone, in response to the coronavirus pandemic, Congress has authorized more than $2 trillion in fiscal stimulus spending with no revenue sources identified to pay for it – this on top of a previously estimated $1 trillion budget deficit in 2020. Another $1 trillion in stimulus could be on the way.
Most if not all of this $4 trillion will be financed with newly issued debt – 10 years after the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, also known as Simpson-Bowles, warned about the long-term effects of what were already (even then) ballooning levels of public indebtedness.
Projections by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget say that by 2023, U.S. debt held by the public will surpass previous high-water marks set following World War II. They estimate the budget deficit could grow to 117% of GDP by 2025, well above the level economists usually point to as the threshold for a malignant debt spiral.
How will we ever keep this overhang of public indebtedness from giving us a square root recovery – down, up, then slow, anemic growth as far as the eye can see? Or a "zombie economy," like the one Japan has been contending with for decades?
Optimists point to two factors:
- The lowest interest rates in our lifetimes, which make all types of debt more affordable.
- The U.S. dollar's status as the world's only reserve currency, which proponents of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) argue allows the United States to issue new dollars to pay for new debt without the consequences less fortunate countries would have to contend with.
Pessimists cite two problems with the optimists' arguments:
- Monetizing mountains of new debt could lead to resurgent inflation, which would inevitably raise interest rates and increase the cost of debt service.
- The very profligacy justified by MMT would eventually debase the world's only reserve currency.
For now, we may be in the Land of Oz. But to echo an observation in a recent Financial Times piece, "erosion of the dollar's value in a world awash with central bank money" means the laws of fiscal gravity would once again apply to the U.S.
Clearly, now is the time for the kind of financial innovation Yale economist Robert Shiller had in mind when he wrote his book Finance and the Good Society:
"Ironically, better financial instruments, not less activity in finance, is what we need to reduce the probability of financial crises in the future. ... Innovations could include the implementation of new and better safeguards against economic depression. ... We could also see innovative measures developed to curtail the rising plague of economic inequality that threatens to create serious social problems in society."
As an example of this kind of financial innovation in the service of social goals, Shiller called a couple of years ago for the U.S. government to issue bonds linked to our country's GDP. He described his idea in an article in The New York Times titled, "The Next New Thing in Finance – Bonds Linked Directly to the Economy."
GDP-linked bonds, wrote Shiller, "would be helpful in a financial crisis, when economic growth, inflation and tax revenue fall, making conventional debt burdensome."
"In expansions, however, investors would benefit."
In other words, debt service costs would be low in periods when the U.S. couldn't afford to pony up, but would increase in periods when economic growth rebounded and increased tax revenues enabled us to service our debt without compromising other types of public spending. Other countries have experimented with this unconventional approach. In fact, the Italian government recently launched such a bond to help fund the country's coronavirus response and recovery.
Shiller took this idea one step further in describing the possibility of the U.S. government raising money by issuing what he calls "Trills" – perpetual securities (with no maturity date) that would pay a dividend equal to one-trillionth of U.S. GDP. The stronger the economic growth, the higher the dividend.
Trills would also give investors, who could conceivably include a significant portion of productive workers in the U.S., an incentive to contribute to future economic growth. (Think of the popularity of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS, an idea Shiller also proposed in 1996.)
COVID-19 relief is only one of several proposed multi-trillion dollar initiatives on the plates of policymakers these days. There is Medicare for All (also known as universal healthcare). The Green New Deal. Not to mention investments needed to rebuild America's crumbling infrastructure.
There is simply no way traditional debt can finance even a fraction of all those spending and investments proposals – never mind how low interest rates are or how strong the U.S. dollar is today.
Whether Trills are the answer or not, there is no question Shiller-esque financial innovation will be necessary to help get us out of the jam we've gotten ourselves into and provide the investments necessary for the future vitality of our country.
Would You Hire This Man Today?
Pete Mahurin is a legend.
One of the longest-tenured, and for many years the largest, producers at the former Hilliard Lyons, he is renowned not only for his client relationships and his investment acumen, but for the letter he wrote over 50 years ago requesting employment as a broker trainee. It is a classic:
I am writing concerning job openings in the Finance field. My name is Pete Mahurin, age 29. I am in excellent health, having not missed a day of work in five years. I neither smoke nor drink. I am a High School science teacher. I also am in the wholesale egg business.
My college years were wilder than most. I worked as a steeplejack (painting water towers) and played poker for a living. However, I quit poker and have not played in six years.
I will give you some of my assets and liabilities. First the assets: I am quick to learn. I can sell. I expect to work and I like to work. I am dependable. I will be at work on time and not half asleep.
Now my liabilities. I have no rich friends or relatives and can bring your firm no business in that manner. My background is rural and I am not in the Country Club set and have no interest in being in it. I have never owned a share of stock in my life.
Selling eggs, teaching, painting water towers and playing poker. A non-traditional resume, to say the least. But it might just be one of the very things that made possible Mahurin's extremely successful career in wealth management.
"Pete might be considered 'old school' by today's standards," says Baird Vice Chairman Jim Allen, one of Mahurin's closest friends, "but don't suggest that to his clients or to those who he has mentored over the years."
"Because of who he is and where he has come from, they have all benefited from the wisdom and guidance of an individual who is not just gifted, but tirelessly hardworking and authentic, with values that can provide valuable lessons for generations to come."
As the senior-most generation of financial advisors begins to transition out of our business and (hopefully) hand their practices and their clients off to next-generation successors, I worry that we risk losing one of the things I've always loved about the wealth management business – the diversity of backgrounds advisors have brought to our industry and the multiplicity of paths they followed to get here.
Part of that has to do with the way retail brokerage evolved over the years into investment management, which evolved into wealth management. It's shifted from sales to advice. From transactions to relationships. From a business to a profession, with different standards and hurdles to entry.
There's also no question our industry values different types of diversity than in the past – specifically, gender and ethnic diversity – and firms like Baird are working to ensure their associates more closely reflect the diversity of the clients we serve.
But younger advisors are less likely to have done the things Pete Mahurin did in his youth. We're not likely to have the same eclectic breadth of experience in our advisor ranks a decade from now that we do today.
If and when that happens, I for one am afraid our industry will have lost something unique and special, even for all we have gained.
Where Will the Next Generation of Financial Advisors Come From?
This month, as communities across the country begin to look for a safe path back to some semblance of normal life, college students are graduating in what must seem a surreal fashion. With no ceremonies or celebrations to attend in person, some are doubtless thinking hard about the current environment and what it might mean for their plans.
One thing seems certain: Unless their time in quarantine has radically changed their outlook, many of them won't be going into the wealth management business.
Earlier this year I wrote an article for Investment News about what was then perhaps the biggest crisis facing our industry – an impending wave of financial advisor retirements anticipated in the next decade with nowhere near enough interested young talent in the recruiting pipeline to replace them. The implications of this are serious not just for wealth management firms but for their current and prospective future clients.
In the months since the article was published, other priorities have obviously shifted to the front burner due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on both the economy and people's financial lives. But the next-gen talent shortage continues to simmer in the background.
Before shelter-in-place orders turned college seniors' last semester into an extended virtual reality exercise, I sat down with Baird's Next Generation Talent Manager Katie Jackson to talk about what Baird is doing to bridge the looming generation gap in our industry. You can watch that interview in the video below.
Learn more about Baird’s Foundations program at BairdCareers.com.
Image Taken Before the Pandemic: Foundations Associates Anita Volk and Michael Krecek take steps toward their futures as Financial Advisors.